Vigilo Index

Verified entries on signal 9, model and agent releases.

Sources: Vigilo AI Watch public record · last updated Oct 22, 2026

Estimate

Epoch AI's count of publicly disclosed models it estimates were trained with at least 10^25 FLOP, the scale of GPT-4, held until Epoch updates it. Nobody publishes a count of training runs underway.

• 33, Nov 21, 2025, Epoch AI, Models trained on over 1e25 FLOP

Sources: Epoch AI, models trained on over 10^25 FLOP · last updated Nov 21, 2025

Verified entries classified as a new state-of-the-art result on a public benchmark.

Sources: Vigilo AI Watch public record; Epoch AI · last updated Oct 20, 2026

Verified entries on signal 1, lab research automation: AI doing the research that builds AI.

Sources: Vigilo AI Watch public record · last updated Oct 21, 2026

Estimate, as of Sep 19, 2026

Straight line between the two most recent weekly-user figures OpenAI has published, shown one interval behind real time. OpenAI gives each as "more than", so the line runs between floors. No chatbot maker publishes daily users.

• 900,000,000, Mar 31, 2026, OpenAI, Accelerating the next phase of AI
• 1,000,000,000, Aug 31, 2026, OpenAI, A milestone in expanding access to AI
• 1,200,000,000, Oct 7, 2026, OpenAI, GPT-6 and Intelligent UI for everyone

Sources: OpenAI · last updated Oct 7, 2026

Estimate, as of Oct 29, 2025

The sum of the latest user figure each AI assistant's maker has published itself, weekly where the maker gives weekly, monthly where it gives only monthly. Every maker's part moves along the line between its own two newest published figures, one interval behind real time, as Weekly ChatGPT users does. A maker with one figure holds at it. Makers that publish no figure are listed and left out. People who use more than one assistant are counted once for each.

• 1,104,792,014 weekly, Sep 19, 2026, OpenAI, ChatGPT (moving)
• 1,000,000,000 monthly, Aug 11, 2026, Google, Gemini app
• 1,000,000,000 monthly, Oct 29, 2025, Meta, Meta AI
• 150,000,000 monthly, Oct 29, 2025, Microsoft, Copilot family
• 117,000,000 monthly, Mar 31, 2026, xAI, Grok
• no published figure, Anthropic, Claude
• no published figure, Perplexity, Perplexity
• no published figure, DeepSeek, DeepSeek

Sources: OpenAI; Alphabet, Q2 2026 earnings remarks; Google, Gemini app at 1 billion monthly users; Meta, Q3 2025 earnings call; Microsoft, FY26 Q1 earnings call; Space Exploration Technologies, Form S-1; Space Exploration Technologies, Form 424B4 · last updated Sep 19, 2026

Estimate

The share of US children aged 9 to 12 who have used an AI chatbot, from the latest Common Sense Media census, held until the next one.

• 58%, Mar 26, 2026, Common Sense Media Census: AI Use by Tweens and Teens, 2026

Sources: Common Sense Media Census: AI Use by Tweens and Teens, 2026 · last updated Mar 26, 2026

Complaints of internet-enabled fraud filed with the FBI by people aged 60 and over in the latest year reported, held until the next annual report. Complaints, not a count of victims.

• 201,266, Dec 31, 2025, FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, 2025 IC3 Annual Report

Sources: FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center, 2025 IC3 Annual Report · last updated Dec 31, 2025

Estimate, as of Oct 26, 2025

Straight line between Imperva's two most recent yearly measurements of the share of all web traffic that is automated, shown one interval behind real time. Web traffic, not social media alone.

• 51%, Dec 31, 2024, Imperva (Thales), Bad Bot Report 2026
• 53%, Dec 31, 2025, Imperva (Thales), Bad Bot Report 2026

Sources: Imperva (Thales), Bad Bot Report 2026 · last updated Dec 31, 2025